On the afternoon of May 5th, my country’s independently developed C919 large passenger aircraft completed its first flight at Shanghai Pudong International Airport.
The industry generally believes that after the official first flight of the C919, it will quickly enter the subsequent testing, production and delivery stages, which will become the beginning of the upgrading period for my country’s aviation industry. More importantly, with the production and delivery of C919, related aviation manufacturing upstream and downstream industries will develop rapidly, and the five aviation industry clusters in East China, Northwest, Southwest, Northeast, and Central will develop and grow together, and jointly open up a trillion scale. market.
Progress aviation industry enters an upgrading period
After many years of development, my country’s aviation industry has achieved a certain scale. However, my country did not yet have the ability to design and manufacture large and medium-sized commercial aircraft, so the development of the aviation industry still has huge room for upgrading. At present, my country has launched the C919 project and has entered the first flight stage; in addition, a major special aviation engine project is also progressing smoothly. As the most important products in the aviation industry, once large aircraft and aero engines are fully independently designed and manufactured, it means that my country’s aviation industry will enter a period of upgrading and is expected to gain a firm foothold in the international aviation market.
According to COMAC, the C919 successfully flew for the first time at Pudong Airport on May 5. According to Jin Zhuanglong, Chairman of COMAC, after the C919 completes its first flight, it will carry out avionics, flight control, hydraulic and other system tests, as well as airborne system integration tests and full static tests. According to industry forecasts, if the first flight and follow-up work progress smoothly, the C919 will complete various technical verifications as early as 2017 and enter the follow-up production and delivery phase as early as 2018.
“Economic Information Daily” reporter also learned from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology that the aero engine special project is also progressing smoothly. Prior to this, China Aviation Engine Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “China Aviation Development”), which is responsible for the special aviation engine project, has exhibited a number of models of turbofans, turboshafts and other aero engines during the 2016 Zhuhai Air Show, as well as corresponding New materials and new processes. According to reports, the key model aero engine that China Aviation Development is responsible for has been established and the preliminary research and development has begun. Some aviation industry R&D personnel introduced to reporters that if everything goes well, the key models of aero engines are expected to be unveiled around 2030, when the C919 and subsequent large domestic aircrafts will be able to install domestic aero engines. This will greatly enhance the international competitiveness of my country’s aviation industry and key aviation products.
The industry generally believes that the production and roll-off of C919 and the establishment of key aero-engine projects will be the beginning of the overall upgrade of my country’s aviation industry.
Prospects trillion market scale can be expected
With the appearance of key products and the introduction of related industrial policies, the huge demand in multiple fields and at multiple levels has also enabled the aviation industry to gradually grow into an important industry that is expected to break through trillions of dollars.
Civil aviation data show that as of the end of 2015, my country’s average annual number of flights per capita reached 0.32, an increase of 167% in 10 years. According to Huo Daren, executive director of the Boeing Civil Aircraft Group’s China Market, China’s transportation aviation market will need more than 7,000 aircraft in the next 20 years, and it will become the world’s first market with more than one trillion US dollars. China Merchants Securities and other brokerage research reports predict that by 2030, the global demand for 160-seat single-aisle jets belonging to the C919 is about 14,500, while my country’s estimated demand is about 2,650. According to the forecast of COMAC, the C919 is expected to sell at least 2,000 planes. According to the calculation of 50 million U.S. dollars per plane, the market space of C919 exceeds 100 billion U.S. dollars (approximately 690 billion yuan).
According to reports, the C919 has received 570 orders from 23 users worldwide. In addition, the market prospects in the field of aeroengines should not be underestimated. The authoritative report published by the National Manufacturing Power Construction Strategy Advisory Committee predicts that in the next ten years, the global market will have strong demand for aero engine products. The cumulative global demand for turbofans and turbojet engines will exceed 73,600 units, with a total value of more than 400 billion. US dollars; the cumulative demand for turboshaft engines exceeds 34,000 units, with a total value of over 19 billion U.S. dollars; the cumulative demand for turboprop engines exceeds 16,000 units, with a total value of over 15 billion U.S. dollars; the demand for piston engines exceeds 33,000 units, with a total value of over US$15 billion. $3 billion. During the same period, the cumulative demand for large engines for domestic mainline passenger aircraft in my country will exceed 6,000, with a total value of over US$50 billion. With the opening of low-altitude airspace, the demand for aero engines for general aircraft will also increase.
According to the National Manufacturing Power Construction Strategy Advisory Committee, the launch of the aero engine special action is an important driver for the rapid development of my country’s aero engine industry. In line with the Made in China 2025 strategy, the scale of my country’s aero engine industry will exceed 70 billion yuan by the end of the “13th Five-Year Plan” period. Some products will enter the international market; by 2025, the scale of the industry will exceed 100 billion yuan, and the industry is expected to enter the world’s first echelon.
A number of securities firm research reports also pointed out that the aero engine market is in huge demand, but currently only three companies in the world, General (GE), Pratt & Whitney (PW) and Rolls-Royce (RR) have the ability to independently develop aero engines. However, with the launch of the aero-engine special project and the formal establishment of China Aviation Development, my country’s aero-engine industry will accelerate its development and is expected to gain a certain share of the international market in the future.
Trend aviation industry cluster accelerates to take shape
The industry believes that with the production and delivery of C919 and the establishment of key models of aero-engines, my country’s aviation industry cluster will accelerate its formation. Wu Guanghui, chief designer of C919, told the reporter of “Economic Information Daily” that once the C919 is officially delivered, it will not only bring huge benefits to my country’s aviation industry, but also promote the overall development of my country’s aviation industry. At present, the production, supporting and assembling of C919 involves hundreds of companies in Shanghai, Xi’an, Shenyang and other core cities and surrounding areas. The upstream and downstream industrial chain includes aviation manufacturing, new materials, metal processing, avionics, and precision instruments. In many other industries, the cluster development trend of the aviation industry has become very obvious.
According to COMAC, the production of the core components of the C919 is respectively in charge of Shenyang Aircraft Industry Group, Xi’an Aircraft Industry Group, Harbin Hafei Industry Co., Ltd., Sichuan Chengfei Integrated Technology Co., Ltd., and Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Group. COMAC, located in Shanghai, conducts overall assembly.
According to reports, the above-mentioned companies were restructured from the former aerospace design and manufacturing units such as Shenfei, Xi’an, Hafei, Chengfei, and Hongdu. Shenyang, Xi’an, Chengdu, Harbin, and Nanchang where they are located have become my country’s aviation industry. Core city. With the production and delivery of C919, my country is expected to form five major aviation industry clusters in East China, Northeast China, Northwest China, Southwest China, and Central China with the aforementioned cities and Shanghai as the core.
In fact, according to the 13th Five-Year Plan and the Made in China 2025 implementation plan in the aforementioned regions, it is not difficult to find that these core industrial regions are also accelerating the creation of regionally integrated aviation industry clusters. Take East China as an example. At present, Shanghai, Zhenjiang, Changzhou, Jiaxing and many other cities in the Yangtze River Delta have formulated aviation industry development plans based on supporting the production of C919 large aircraft, and have established their own aviation industry parks and introduced many A supporting production enterprise. Zhu Qiangsong, deputy director of the Zhenjiang Development and Reform Commission, revealed to the reporter of “Economic Information Daily” that after the launch of the large aircraft project, Zhenjiang City launched its layout in the aviation industry with supporting large aircraft production. After sorting out the list of all companies that meet the requirements of large aircraft project suppliers, they took the initiative Industrial docking with Shanghai; and the construction of an aerospace industrial park was launched in 2009, with a total investment of over 10 billion yuan. It has successfully introduced dozens of companies such as Aerospace Seahawk, a manufacturer of the rear section of the C919 aircraft fuselage. At present, Zhenjiang Aerospace Industrial Park has become a national-level demonstration base for the new industrialization of the aviation industry. Dozens of companies in the park have entered the list of C919 suppliers. About 10% of the parts and components required for the final assembly of C919 are produced by the park companies.
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